In this week’s edition of Seven Points, we discuss how schedules dictate playoff spots, a certain quarterback who “just wins”, the likely conclusion of the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes, what’s wrong with Tampa Bay, some awful quarterbacking performances, the best running back bargain in the game and how order was restored in the AFC East.
Over the past few weeks NFL fans, players and experts alike have pondered the legitimacy of this year’s early surprise teams in Cincinnati and Buffalo. We may be figuring out who these teams really are.
The Cincinnati Bengals are no longer one of the NFL’s downtrodden. They’ve proven that every week with victories over said downtrodden teams such as Cleveland, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Seattle and Tennessee. Their most impressive victory to date was a Week Four win at home against Buffalo, who has dropped three of their last four contests.
The Bengals had an opportunity to shut up the people that pointed to their weak schedule as the reason for their favorable record with a victory against Pittsburgh. Instead, the Cincinnati fought hard and lost, 24-17.
“We would like to have the win, but we didn’t get it,” Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis said. “I don’t think this team has to worry about being able to play with the so called elite in the AFC — we can and we will. We will go back to work and prepare and go beat the next team we have to play. That’s our key now.”
Sure, the Bengals didn’t get blown out but they still lost at home by seven points against a very good Pittsburgh team. It’s nice to play a close game with an elite team, but if you can’t beat them at home how do you expect to go on the road and win the next time out? Next up for the Bengals is a trip to Baltimore to take on the 6-3 Ravens.
Unlike the Bengals, the Buffalo Bills seemed to be less a product of a soft schedule and more legitimate early on as they scored impressive victories over Kansas City, Oakland, New England and Philadelphia. Since their 4-1 start, the Bills have dropped three of their last four and haven’t been competitive in their last two blowout losses to the Jets and Cowboys, getting outscored 71-18.
“We will regroup and continue to work to get better,” Bills head coach Chan Gailey said. “But you have to go do it. Nobody’s going to give you anything in this league.”
At 5-4, the Bills playoff hopes really hang in the balance as they travel to Miami before heading to the Meadowlands to take on the Jets. Buffalo will likely need to win both to keep the worst to first story from turning into a worst to third story.
Although fantasy owners may vehemently deny this, the NFL is a bottom line business and wins and losses are the only thing that really matters. However ugly a quarterbacks performance may be, if he leaves the stadium with a “W” everyone is happy, right?
There are plenty of ways to win regular season football games and at times, teams win despite the play of the signal caller. That said, there’s one second-year quarterback in the league whose statline doesn’t look all that pretty but is winning when he’s called upon as the starter.
That player is obviously…..John Skelton?
The second-year stud from Fordham is a perfect 2-0 since taking over for an injured Kevin Kolb in Arizona. The 23-year old completed 21 of 40 throws, for 315 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday’s 21-17 victory over Philadelphia.
Arizona was in the midst of a six-game losing streak prior to Skelton taking over and now have some hope going forward. It’s undeniable that Arizona is playing better with Skelton at the helm, causing some to believe a quarterback controversy may be brewing between he and Kevin Kolb.
“I’ll have to look at the film,” Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt said. “Kolb has done a good job for us this season. They’ve both had some games get squirrelly on them, but we haven’t won on the East Coast in forever, so I’m just going to enjoy this right now.”
Neither quarterback will be confused with Aaron Rodgers as the incumbent Kolb has been painfully mediocre this season, throwing for a little more than 1,700 yards in seven games with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. Skelton has thrown for 537 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions in his two starts.
“It was a team win,” Skelton said after the game. “I put us down with a pick-six and late pick, but the defense bailed me out.”
This “competition” will play out with Kevin Kolb getting the benefit of every doubt. The Cardinals invested a second-round draft pick along with a former first-round pick in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to acquire the former Houston Cougar, and most importantly they granted Kolb nearly $30 million of guaranteed money.
In the meantime John Skelton will continue to play when called upon and keep winning games, despite the occasional pick-six and sack for a safety.
On Sunday, the Indianapolis Colts did what they seem to do best this season- get blown out. This time the beneficiary was the Jacksonville Jaguars who stopped a six-game road losing streak with the 17-3 victory.
“It was a good effort,” Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio said. “We leaned on our defense and our running game. It was important for us to come in and get a divisional win.”
The Indianapolis Colts have lost each of the 10 games they’ve played and there seems to be no end in sight.
“The team is sputtering. This is not a blame game. We’re not playing a blame game. We’re in it together,” Colts defensive end Robert Mathis said. “We just got to get out of this holding pattern.”
The Colts have some semi-winnable games on the horizon as they host the 2-7 Carolina Panthers coming out of their bye, and later host Tennessee who could be out of playoff contention and starting rookie quarterback Jake Locker. They finish the season with a trip to Jacksonville to take on the same Jaguars team that throttled them on Sunday.
Being two wins “behind” Miami, Carolina, St. Louis and Minnesota, Indianapolis would have to go 3-3 in their final six games and each of those four teams would have to lose each of their remaining games for the Colts not to have the first-overall pick. Those odds seem long at best.
The Colts will have a decision to make as the best quarterback prospect in the last generation, Stanford’s Andrew Luck will likely be available to them. With Peyton Manning’s health in question after his third neck surgery and the team having a $28 million option on him, this should be a very interesting offseason in Indianapolis.
The schedule plays a more important factor in the NFL than any other professional sports league. Schedules can make mediocre teams look good, and solid teams look mediocre. It appears as if the 2010 Tampa Bay Buccaneers who went 10-6 were a product of a very soft schedule which included four games against the NFC West and the AFC North.
After a 3-13 season in 2009, Tampa Bay surprised many opponents last season with late-game heroics by quarterback Josh Freeman, who threw for 25 touchdowns and six interceptions. Half of Tampa’s 10 victories were by three points or less- against that weak schedule.
The hope for 2011 was that their young nucleus would improve enough to offset the more difficult schedule. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, key members of their team have regressed including quarterback Josh Freeman, who has thrown just nine touchdowns and 13 interceptions this season, second most in the NFL behind Philip Rivers.
“Nothing’s wrong with me,” Freeman said following the game. “I feel I’m a better quarterback this year than I was last year.”
Reality and statistics strongly suggest otherwise as Freeman has been staring down receivers all year long. He’s getting confused by disguises in coverage and he’s making poor throws. Add in some poor play from second-year wide receiver Mike Williams, and the Bucs are lucky to have a 4-5 record.
“I refuse to believe our guys are that bad,” Bucs head coach Raheem Morris said after getting pounded by the Houston Texans, 37-9.
Regardless of whether Raheem Morris wants to believe it, the Bucs have dropped three straight games to Chicago, New Orleans and Houston, all teams that are likely headed for the postseason. With road trips to Green Bay, Tennessee and Atlanta looming, as well as a home date with the Dallas Cowboys, Tampa is likely heading for a sub-.500 record.
The Buccaneers seem to be headed down the same path of several recent come-out-of-nowhere one year, down the next teams that include the 2007 Browns, 2007 Jaguars, 2008 Dolphins, 2008 Titans, 2009 Bengals and 2010 Chiefs.
We are in what some call the golden era of quarterbacking as we’re treated every weekend to the play of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. With those great signal callers come the opposite end of spectrum, and there were a lot of terrible quarterbacking performances this weekend.
- Lions quarterback Matt Stafford had been having a breakout season- right up until Sunday. Stafford missed on an amazing 30 passes including four interceptions in the Lions 37-13 loss to the Bears.
- Buffalo’s Ryan Fitzpatrick played well enough to earn himself a healthy contract extension, but his production has dropped since he’s been paid. The Harvard grad threw three interceptions in the Bills 44-7 pounding at the hands of the Cowboys,
- The gateway to Andrew Luck appears to lie through the strong, yet wildly erratic right arm of Curtis Painter. The Colts quarterback moved the chains just eight times through the air en route to a 13 of 19, 94-yard, two-interception performance before being replaced by Dan Orlovsky, who is on pace to be the first player in NFL history to play for two 0-16 teams.
- The NFL is said to be a passing league, but Denver’s Tim Tebow strongly disagrees. The Broncos signal-caller completed just 2 of 8 throws….in a victory. Denver didn’t win in spite of Tebow, but neither two completions nor eight pass attempts will beat any legitimate opponent.
- In the same game, Kansas City quarterback Matt Cassel continued to underwhelm Chiefs fans as he completed 13 of 28 throws for just 93 yards before being replaced by Tyler Palko.
- Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman is closing the gap on Philip Rivers for the interception lead as the third-year pro from Kansas State fired three picks in Tampa’s blowout loss to Houston. Freeman completed just 15 of his 35 throws against the NFL’s top defense entering this weekend.
- Last but not least Eagles quarterback Michael Vick continues to be a one-year wonder. Vick completed just 16 of his 34 passes with two interceptions against a Cardinals defense that was ranked 27th entering this weekend. Vick has as many interceptions as touchdowns this season (11) and is a major reason for Philadelphia’s 3-6 start.
Let this sink in for a moment: the Houston Texans have the best record in the AFC and if the season were to end today, they’d have home-field advantage all the way to Indianapolis for the Super Bowl.
Houston was always a great “fantasy team” as Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Arian Foster put up great stats, but wins were always few and far between. This year the Texans are finally playing up to their potential and it starts on offense with their powerful rushing attack led by the third-year back from Tennessee.
So how did the Texans “stumble” upon this great running back?
Houston was crafty enough to wait until after the 2009 draft to sign undrafted rookie Arian Foster. Foster stayed on Houston’s practice squad until injuries forced him on the active roster at the end of the season. Foster showed signs of being an NFL back as he scored three touchdowns in six games but that didn’t keep the Texans from selecting running back Ben Tate in the second-round of the 2010 draft.
Tate broke his leg in his first training camp and Foster was handed the keys to the car. In 13 starts in 2010, Foster led the NFL with 1,616 yards rushing, added 606 yards receiving and 18 total touchdowns. In eight games this season, Foster has ran for 740 yards with six touchdowns and has caught 31 more passes for 445 yards and two more touchdowns.
“He lets things develop,” Andre Johnson said. “He really understands our running scheme. That’s big. When I see him on film, he’s not forcing anything. He lets the game come to him.”
Arian Foster is one of the best backs in football. He sets up blocks as well as anyone, he’s not the fastest back but he’s fast enough to get through the hole. He can make guys miss and also can run defenders over. Foster always seems to fall forward as well and that’s why he’s been so productive.
“Big body,” Texans head coach Gary Kubiak said when asked about his Pro Bowl rusher. “He’s always falling forward. If the play is blocked for 3, he gets 5. He’s got a knack for that.”
Not only has Foster dominated on the field this season despite the presence of wide receiver Andre Johnson, but he’s also the best bargain in the NFL. As an exclusive rights free agent, Foster will receive just $525,000 this season. A great value for what could be the very best running back in football.
Foster would like to get a new deal but he didn’t hold out of training camp and hasn’t been a distraction to the team.
“I’d be lying if I said I didn’t because I was an undrafted guy,” Foster told Deadspin.com. “My signing bonus to come to Houston wasn’t that much man. I always say if you do the right things then good things will happen to you. Whenever they happen it will happen and all I can control is what I can control.”
Foster had another banner day on Sunday as he ran for 84 yards with a touchdown and caught four more passes for 102 yards including a 78-yard score.
“I think that’s what sets me apart from other running backs—I make guys miss in the open field,” Foster said after the Texans 37-9 pasting of the Buccaneers. “It’s been part of my game for a long time and it felt good. Like I said last week, I’m just starting to get in my game shape, my game form, and it feels good.
If Foster is indeed just getting into shape, look out! He’s helping the Texans to their first AFC South title and they look like they can make a deep run, especially if they’re playing all their games in Reliant Stadium.
The Bengals fell back to Earth thanks to the defensive stylings of Steelers DC Dick LeBeau. Aside from dropping the ultra-important division game, 24-17, Cincinnati appare...
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